This study presents a lightweight, domain-informed AI model for predicting indoor temperatures in naturally ventilated schools and homes in Sub-Saharan Africa. The model extends the Temp-AI-Estimator framework, trained on Tanzanian school data, and evaluated on Nigerian schools and Gambian homes. It achieves robust cross-country performance using only minimal accessible inputs, with mean absolute errors of 1.45°C for Nigerian schools and 0.65°C for Gambian homes. These findings highlight AI's potential for thermal comfort management in resource-constrained environments.

Active Inference (AIF) is emerging as a powerful framework for decision-making under uncertainty, yet its potential in engineering applications remains largely unexplored. In this work, we propose a novel dual-layer AIF architecture that addresses both building-level and community-level energy management. By leveraging the free energy principle, each layer adapts to evolving conditions and handles partial observability without extensive sensor information and respecting data privacy. We validate the continuous AIF model against both a perfect optimization baseline and a reinforcement learning-based approach. We also test the community AIF framework under extreme pricing scenarios. The results highlight the model's robustness in handling abrupt changes. This study is the first to show how a distributed AIF works in engineering. It also highlights new opportunities for privacy-preserving and uncertainty-aware control strategies in engineering applications.

Model predictive control (MPC) controller is considered for temperature management in buildings but its performance heavily depends on hyperparameters. Consequently, MPC necessitates meticulous hyperparameter tuning to attain optimal performance under diverse contracts. However, conventional building controller design is an open-loop process without critical hyperparameter optimization, often leading to suboptimal performance due to unexpected environmental disturbances and modeling errors. Furthermore, these hyperparameters are not adapted to different pricing schemes and may lead to non-economic operations. To address these issues, we propose an efficient performance-oriented building MPC controller tuning method based on a cutting-edge efficient constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm, CONFIG, with global optimality guarantees. We demonstrate that this technique can be applied to efficiently deal with real-world DSM program selection problems under customized black-box constraints and objectives. In this study, a simple MPC controller, which offers the advantages of reduced commissioning costs, enhanced computational efficiency, was optimized to perform on a comparable level to a delicately designed and computationally expensive MPC controller. The results also indicate that with an optimized simple MPC, the monthly electricity cost of a household can be reduced by up to 26.90% compared with the cost when controlled by a basic rule-based controller under the same constraints. Then we compared 12 real electricity contracts in Belgium for a household family with customized black-box occupant comfort constraints. The results indicate a monthly electricity bill saving up to 20.18% when the most economic contract is compared with the worst one, which again illustrates the significance of choosing a proper electricity contract.

The development of current building energy system operation has benefited from: 1. Informational support from the optimal design through simulation or first-principles models; 2. System load and energy prediction through machine learning (ML). Through the literature review, we note that in current control strategies and optimization algorithms, most of them rely on receiving information from real-time feedback or using only predictive signals based on ML data fitting. They do not fully utilize dynamic building information. In other words, embedding dynamic prior knowledge from building system characteristics simultaneously for system control draws less attention. In this context, we propose an engineer-friendly control strategy framework. The framework is integrated with a feedforward loop that embedded a dynamic building environment with leading and lagging system information involved: The simulation combined with system characteristic information is imported to the ML predictive algorithms. ML generates step-ahead information by rolling-window feed-in of simulation output to minimize the errors of its forecasting predecessor in a loop and achieve an overall optimal. We tested it in a case for heating system control with typical control strategies, which shows our framework owns a further energy-saving potential of 15%.

Achieving efficiency gains in Chinese district heating networks, thereby reducing their carbon footprint, requires new optimal control methods going beyond current industry tools. Focusing on the secondary network, we propose a data-driven deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach to address this task. We build a recurrent neural network, trained on simulated data, to predict the indoor temperatures. This model is then used to train two DRL agents, with or without expert guidance, for the optimal control of the supply water temperature. Our tests in a multi-apartment setting show that both agents can ensure a higher thermal comfort and at the same time a smaller energy cost, compared to an optimized baseline strategy.

Modeling buildings' heat dynamics is a complex process which depends on various factors including weather, building thermal capacity, insulation preservation, and residents' behavior. Gray-box models offer a causal inference of those dynamics expressed in few parameters specific to built environments. These parameters can provide compelling insights into the characteristics of building artifacts and have various applications such as forecasting HVAC usage, indoor temperature control monitoring of built environments, etc. In this paper, we present a systematic study of modeling buildings' thermal characteristics and thus derive the parameters of built conditions with a Bayesian approach. We build a Bayesian state-space model that can adapt and incorporate buildings' thermal equations and propose a generalized solution that can easily adapt prior knowledge regarding the parameters. We show that a faster approximate approach using variational inference for parameter estimation can provide similar parameters as that of a more time-consuming Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We perform extensive evaluations on two datasets to understand the generative process and show that the Bayesian approach is more interpretable. We further study the effects of prior selection for the model parameters and transfer learning, where we learn parameters from one season and use them to fit the model in the other. We perform extensive evaluations on controlled and real data traces to enumerate buildings' parameter within a 95% credible interval.

Most of the current game-theoretic demand-side management methods focus primarily on the scheduling of home appliances, and the related numerical experiments are analyzed under various scenarios to achieve the corresponding Nash-equilibrium (NE) and optimal results. However, not much work is conducted for academic or commercial buildings. The methods for optimizing academic-buildings are distinct from the optimal methods for home appliances. In my study, we address a novel methodology to control the operation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC). With the development of Artificial Intelligence and computer technologies, reinforcement learning (RL) can be implemented in multiple realistic scenarios and help people to solve thousands of real-world problems. Reinforcement Learning, which is considered as the art of future AI, builds the bridge between agents and environments through Markov Decision Chain or Neural Network and has seldom been used in power system. The art of RL is that once the simulator for a specific environment is built, the algorithm can keep learning from the environment. Therefore, RL is capable of dealing with constantly changing simulator inputs such as power demand, the condition of power system and outdoor temperature, etc. Compared with the existing distribution power system planning mechanisms and the related game theoretical methodologies, our proposed algorithm can plan and optimize the hourly energy usage, and have the ability to corporate with even shorter time window if needed.

Classical methods to control heating systems are often marred by suboptimal performance, inability to adapt to dynamic conditions and unreasonable assumptions e.g. existence of building models. This paper presents a novel deep reinforcement learning algorithm which can control space heating in buildings in a computationally efficient manner, and benchmarks it against other known techniques. The proposed algorithm outperforms rule based control by between 5-10% in a simulation environment for a number of price signals. We conclude that, while not optimal, the proposed algorithm offers additional practical advantages such as faster computation times and increased robustness to non-stationarities in building dynamics.

The Neurothermostat is an adaptive controller that regulates indoor air temperature in a residence by switching a furnace on or off. The task is framed as an optimal control problem in which both comfort and energy costs are considered as part of the control objective. Because the consequences of control decisions are delayed in time, the N eurothermostat must anticipate heating demands with predictive models of occupancy patterns and the thermal response of the house and furnace. Occupancy pattern prediction is achieved by a hybrid neural net / lookup table. The Neurothermostat searches, at each discrete time step, for a decision sequence that minimizes the expected cost over a fixed planning horizon.

The Neurothermostat is an adaptive controller that regulates indoor air temperature in a residence by switching a furnace on or off. The task is framed as an optimal control problem in which both comfort and energy costs are considered as part of the control objective. Because the consequences of control decisions are delayed in time, the N eurothermostat must anticipate heating demands with predictive models of occupancy patterns and the thermal response of the house and furnace. Occupancy pattern prediction is achieved by a hybrid neural net / lookup table. The Neurothermostat searches, at each discrete time step, for a decision sequence that minimizes the expected cost over a fixed planning horizon.